On NIFTY - 1

There is now a lot of speculation regarding whether NIFTY will cross 5000 or not. As per my calculations

(a) the chance that the closing value of NIFTY on 1-Oct-2009 will exceed 5000 is 33.5% and

(b) the chance that the closing value of NIFTY on 16-Oct-2009 will exceed 5000 is 41.7%

Deaths due to Swine Flu in India - Predictions for Sept 11 -15

The prediction of the number of deaths due to swine flu for the next five days is:

Date Forecast 95% Prediction Interval

11-Sep 154 (150, 158)

12-Sep 159 (155, 164)

13-Sep 164 (159, 169)

14-Sep 170 (164, 175)

15-Sep 175 (169, 181)

(The analysis is based on data available from http://www.swineflu-india.org/)

Y-o-Y quarterly GDP growth of India (2009-10)

Based on the data on Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y) quarterly growth of GDP (at constant 1999-2000 prices) over the period 1997-98 to 2008-09 my predictions for the Y-o-Y quarterly growth for 2009-10 (at constant 1999-2000 prices) are as follows:

Forecast (%) 95% prediction interval

Q1 6.0 (3.1, 8.9)

Q2 6.9 (3.1, 10.7)

Q3 7.2 (3.0, 11.5)

Q4 7.8 (3.2, 12.4)

Swine Flu in India - 8

My forecasts for the number of deaths due to swine-flu for the next five days are as follows

Date Forecast 95% prediction interval

6-Sep 126 (123, 129)

7-Sep 131 (128, 134)

8-Sep 136 (132, 139)

9-Sep 141 (137, 144)

10-Sep 145 (142, 149)

The data on the statewise mortality figures given in http://www.swineflu-india.org/ continues to show remarkable heterogenity in the apparent mortality rate. Gujarat has the highest apparent mortality rate (~9%), followed by Karanataka (~6%). In contrast Delhi has an apparent mortality of 0.4% while the same for Tamil Nadu is 0.6%.

Swine Flu in India - 7

Here are my predictions of the cumulative number of deaths in the period 1-Sep to 5-Sep. These are based on the available data on the cumulative number of deaths between (21-Aug to 31-Aug).

Date Forecast 95% Prediction Interval

1-Sep 103 (101, 106)

2-Sep 108 (106, 111)

3-Sep 113 (111, 116)

4-Sep 118 (116, 121)

5-Sep 123 (121, 126)

There had been 37 reported deaths due to swine flu during the week 25-Aug to 31- Aug. This is almost equal to 38 deaths reported in the week 18-Aug to 24-Aug. From the predictions it appears that we will have similar number of deaths in the coming week.

The number of confirmed positive swine-flu cases in the period 25-Aug to 31 - Aug was 1077 and that for the period 18-Aug to 24-Aug is 982.