Swine Flu in India - 8

My forecasts for the number of deaths due to swine-flu for the next five days are as follows

Date Forecast 95% prediction interval

6-Sep 126 (123, 129)

7-Sep 131 (128, 134)

8-Sep 136 (132, 139)

9-Sep 141 (137, 144)

10-Sep 145 (142, 149)

The data on the statewise mortality figures given in http://www.swineflu-india.org/ continues to show remarkable heterogenity in the apparent mortality rate. Gujarat has the highest apparent mortality rate (~9%), followed by Karanataka (~6%). In contrast Delhi has an apparent mortality of 0.4% while the same for Tamil Nadu is 0.6%.