Will Sensex hit 21000 before Diwali?

I saw a news item in a newspaper website speculating that the Sensex will cross 21000 prior to Diwali. As per my calculations the chance is not that bright. It is only about 9%.

Here is the probability distribution of the value of Sensex on the pre-Diwali day:

Less than 19000 - 5%

Between 19000 to 19500 - 14%

Between 19500 - 20000 - 28%

Between 20000 - 20500 - 26%

Between 20500 - 21000 - 18%

Above 21000 - 9%

Happy Diwali!