Thursday, August 27, 2009

On Swine flu in India - 5

My projections for laboratory confirmed total number of cases and new cases (based on data from 19-Jul to 26-Aug) is as follows
Date New Cases Total 95% prediction interval for Total
28 Aug 201 3664 (3443, 3899)
29 Aug 213 3877 (3572, 4208)
30 Aug 225 4102 (3705, 4543)
31 Aug 239 4341 (3841, 4906)

My projections on the cumulative number of deaths predicted on the above days are:

Date Total 95% prediction interval of no. of total deaths
28 Aug 84 (78, 89)
29 Aug 90 (84, 96)
30 Aug 96 (90, 102)
31 Aug 103 (97, 109)



1 comment:

  1. I think the analysis is giving results that is strongly correlated with the actual.
    -Sanjoy

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