On NIFTY-2

Here are my predictions of the possible closing value of NIFTY for the next week:

Date P5 Q1 Med Q3 P95

5-Oct 4921 5042 5089 5136 5226

6-Oct 4870 5015 5093 5165 5291

7-Oct 4830 5003 5099 5190 5341

8-Oct 4795 4990 5104 5216 5394

9-Oct 4772 4980 5111 5234 5438

P5 = 5th percentile

Q1 = 25th percentile

Med = 50th percentile

Q3 = 75th percentile

P95 = 95th percentile

On NIFTY - 1

There is now a lot of speculation regarding whether NIFTY will cross 5000 or not. As per my calculations

(a) the chance that the closing value of NIFTY on 1-Oct-2009 will exceed 5000 is 33.5% and

(b) the chance that the closing value of NIFTY on 16-Oct-2009 will exceed 5000 is 41.7%