On NIFTY - 1

There is now a lot of speculation regarding whether NIFTY will cross 5000 or not. As per my calculations

(a) the chance that the closing value of NIFTY on 1-Oct-2009 will exceed 5000 is 33.5% and

(b) the chance that the closing value of NIFTY on 16-Oct-2009 will exceed 5000 is 41.7%