Swine Flu in India - 8

My forecasts for the number of deaths due to swine-flu for the next five days are as follows

Date Forecast 95% prediction interval

6-Sep 126 (123, 129)

7-Sep 131 (128, 134)

8-Sep 136 (132, 139)

9-Sep 141 (137, 144)

10-Sep 145 (142, 149)

The data on the statewise mortality figures given in http://www.swineflu-india.org/ continues to show remarkable heterogenity in the apparent mortality rate. Gujarat has the highest apparent mortality rate (~9%), followed by Karanataka (~6%). In contrast Delhi has an apparent mortality of 0.4% while the same for Tamil Nadu is 0.6%.

Swine Flu in India - 7

Here are my predictions of the cumulative number of deaths in the period 1-Sep to 5-Sep. These are based on the available data on the cumulative number of deaths between (21-Aug to 31-Aug).

Date Forecast 95% Prediction Interval

1-Sep 103 (101, 106)

2-Sep 108 (106, 111)

3-Sep 113 (111, 116)

4-Sep 118 (116, 121)

5-Sep 123 (121, 126)

There had been 37 reported deaths due to swine flu during the week 25-Aug to 31- Aug. This is almost equal to 38 deaths reported in the week 18-Aug to 24-Aug. From the predictions it appears that we will have similar number of deaths in the coming week.

The number of confirmed positive swine-flu cases in the period 25-Aug to 31 - Aug was 1077 and that for the period 18-Aug to 24-Aug is 982.