Will Sensex hit 21000 before Diwali?

I saw a news item in a newspaper website speculating that the Sensex will cross 21000 prior to Diwali. As per my calculations the chance is not that bright. It is only about 9%.

Here is the probability distribution of the value of Sensex on the pre-Diwali day:

Less than 19000 - 5%

Between 19000 to 19500 - 14%

Between 19500 - 20000 - 28%

Between 20000 - 20500 - 26%

Between 20500 - 21000 - 18%

Above 21000 - 9%

Happy Diwali!

How low can Sensex go this month?

The sudden fall in the BSE-Sensex has disturbed many a investor and the question foremost in their mind is: How low can this get? I try to answer this question quantitatively below.

Here are my predictions for the lowest value of Sensex for the period 4-Nov to 30-Nov.

Chance of Sensex closing below 15000 on someday within this period: 58%

Chance of Sensex closing below 14000 on someday within this period: 14%

Chance of Sensex closing below 13000 on someday within this period: 2%

Another question that investors are interested in are the chances of an upswing. The chances of these positive happenings are given below:

Chance of Sensex closing above 16000 on someday within this period: 55%

Chance of Sensex closing above 17000 on someday within this period: 17%

Chance of Sensex closing above 18000 on someday within this period: 4%